Full Cycle Analysis

On-chain fundamentals that map where we are in the crypto market cycle. These indicators measure network-level activity — realized value, profit/loss distribution, miner economics — to contextualize price within the broader cycle.

The Indicators

MVRV Z-Score

Market Value to Realized Value, normalized by standard deviation. Measures whether the market is trading above or below the aggregate cost basis of all coins. High MVRV has historically corresponded to market cycle peaks; low MVRV to cycle bottoms.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

The difference between market cap and realized cap, divided by market cap. Indicates the degree of aggregate profit or loss across all holders. Extreme NUPL values have marked generational tops and bottoms.

Thermocap Ratio

Market cap divided by the cumulative security spend (total fees + block rewards). Measures how much value the market assigns per unit of network security investment. High ratios suggest market exuberance relative to fundamental security costs.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)

The ratio of realized value to value at creation for all spent outputs. SOPR above 1.0 means coins are moving at a profit on average; below 1.0 means at a loss. SOPR resets at 1.0 during healthy trends.

CVDD (Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed)

Tracks the cumulative economic activity-weighted time of all spent coins. Acts as a floor model — historically, BTC has never closed below its CVDD line during accumulation phases.

Live BTC On-Chain Readings

Current Z-Score readings for Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals.

IndicatorZ-ScoreClassification
MVRV Z-Score-0.31Slightly OS
NUPL-0.37Slightly OS
SOPR+0.43Slightly OB
CVDD+0.40Slightly OB

Cycle Context

These indicators provide cycle context, not trading signals. They're most useful for understanding whether the market is in early-cycle accumulation, mid-cycle expansion, late-cycle euphoria, or post-cycle capitulation. Combined with the TPI (trend) and MRDM (regime), they form a complete quantitative research framework.

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