On-chain fundamentals that map where we are in the crypto market cycle. These indicators measure network-level activity — realized value, profit/loss distribution, miner economics — to contextualize price within the broader cycle.
Market Value to Realized Value, normalized by standard deviation. Measures whether the market is trading above or below the aggregate cost basis of all coins. High MVRV has historically corresponded to market cycle peaks; low MVRV to cycle bottoms.
The difference between market cap and realized cap, divided by market cap. Indicates the degree of aggregate profit or loss across all holders. Extreme NUPL values have marked generational tops and bottoms.
Market cap divided by the cumulative security spend (total fees + block rewards). Measures how much value the market assigns per unit of network security investment. High ratios suggest market exuberance relative to fundamental security costs.
The ratio of realized value to value at creation for all spent outputs. SOPR above 1.0 means coins are moving at a profit on average; below 1.0 means at a loss. SOPR resets at 1.0 during healthy trends.
Tracks the cumulative economic activity-weighted time of all spent coins. Acts as a floor model — historically, BTC has never closed below its CVDD line during accumulation phases.
Current Z-Score readings for Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals.
| Indicator | Z-Score | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | -0.31 | Slightly OS |
| NUPL | -0.37 | Slightly OS |
| SOPR | +0.43 | Slightly OB |
| CVDD | +0.40 | Slightly OB |
These indicators provide cycle context, not trading signals. They're most useful for understanding whether the market is in early-cycle accumulation, mid-cycle expansion, late-cycle euphoria, or post-cycle capitulation. Combined with the TPI (trend) and MRDM (regime), they form a complete quantitative research framework.
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